Sounds like a fun business, but the reliance on inbound is challenging.
It seems like you’re doing a good job working through the options.
– Press-on and shift to the domestic market
– Press-on shift to domestic + look at adjacent offerings.
There’s a third that many tourism businesses are doing..
– Mothball and then look to resurrect once inbound returns
(and I would add this to your list and evaluate it in the same way…)
A suitable tool would be Lean Canvas for this. Start rough. Make guesses, list assumptions. This will give you an idea of scale. Then you can dive down, dig deeper, find ways to test and validate your assumptions…
So, what does this business look like as a domestic offering? What’s the customer and what will they pay? Will Aucklanders do this or is it best to focus 100% on out of town kiwi’s coming to the big smoke. What does this change for your guides?
I suspect your real value prop here is in your guiding – not the scooters, so repositioning yourself as an urban transport option (you mention Aucklanders heading out for lunchtime) although arguably adjacent, is really quite a different business. Is it realistic to compete with the eScooter businesses? (fleet size? app?)
However, there may be some other adjacent opportunities. One that springs to mind is working with the treasure hunt / quiz experience businesses that target corporates. Check out https://thrillzone.co.nz – from @thrillzone on Manaaki.io.
I hope this help. Feel free to reach out to me on linkedIn if you want to dig a bit deeper.